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The popular mean-variance approaches are well-documented methods of improving a portfolio's risk-reward characteristics. The fact that Markowitz's contributions to Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) have stood the test of time - more than fifty years later - shows the power of these methods. Over the years, additional models have been developed, that, for example, help investors establish reasonable assumptions and optimizer inputs such as expected returns, volatility (standard deviation), and correlations amongst asset classes.

Using the best practices from institutional investing and hedge fund strategies - and applying a mathematical and scientific approach to improve statistical and risk management measures - can maximize the use of information and available diversification potential. It is useful to apply theoretical approaches in a sensible manner to ensure practical and robust results in our pragmatic world. The result is a more complete model that combines Monte Carlo analyses, Post-MPT, and more meaningful risk measures. Below, we discuss a few thoughts on these meaningful statistical measures and approaches.

Modern Portfolio Theory, Normal Distributions, and Downside Risk

Over the years, it has been shown that asset class returns are not normally distributed as assumed by classical MPT and Capital Asset Pricing Models (CAPM). Indeed, while the traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds (or buying and holding of other hard/real assets) might approximate a normal distribution, the same cannot be said of newer asset classes, certain types of hedge funds - and especially many quantitative investment strategies.

More specifically, the pattern of returns for some of these newer strategies are positively skewed and are "fat-tailed," meaning that portfolio managers control risk and minimize losses, while letting gains accumulate. The most common measure of risk (standard deviation) does not differentiate between this (fat-tailed) pattern of returns - and more normally-distributed returns, such as stock returns.

Downside Risk, Semi-Deviation, and Semi-Correlation

Market watchers will tell you that stocks tend to fall harder and faster, than they rise. Indeed, historical data shows this to be true, with about two-thirds of the risk (or standard deviation) for many traditional asset classes to be on the downside. Note that standard deviation is a function of the difference of each data point (in this case, returns) from its mean. However, if you break the standard deviation down into two components: "downside" risk (often called semi-deviation) and "upside" risk, the downside risk for stocks will be about two-thirds of the total standard deviation! On the other hand, the newer strategies that more actively manage risk will often have semi-deviations that are closer to one-half of the standard deviation.

We believe that "semi-deviation" is a better overall risk measure than standard deviation. The implications for portfolio optimization can be significant, and the actual measure is logical. And speaking of downside risk and semi-deviation, what about correlation? Institutional investors and other large investors are always seeking diversification and additional asset classes. Our research has shown that similar to semi-deviation (which makes a lot of sense theoretically and pragmatically, in the real world), a semi-correlation approach also makes sense.

That is, we like to study and measure the inter-relationships amongst various asset classes. But better yet, we want to see which particular asset classes will help when certain assets are declining in value. Thus, we study semi-correlation as well as semi-deviation to get a more accurate picture - when we apply our portfolio diversification models. When people hear "semi-anything" - they might think "half-full or half-empty." However, in this case, we believe that the application of these measures - as well as other prudently applied tools and models - makes these approaches definitely more complete.

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a specialist in strategic asset allocation, quantitative investment strategies, and alternative assets. Carlton has worked with institutional investors on asset allocation and is a fund manager. He holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT. http://www.CARATcapital.com

5 Reasons To Give Your Kids Plastic Model Cars

Why let someone else build your toys when the toy is building plastic model cars? By putting the models together you are learning and teaching your children five valuable life skills. These models are popular for a reason.

1) A chance to build something

Building something requires patience and skill. As you put together more models you will get better and better. The models are all sorted by difficulty levels. If you are just starting out you may not want to start on the one with the working internal combustion engine or a 1000 parts, you may want to start simpler. There are simple models that you can snap together and put on the decals. No glue required. Once you get used to the process you can move on models that need glue to be put together. You can also add more parts, decals and paint. By building something new you gain a sense of adventure as you never know how it will end up.

2) A chance to be creative

Just because the picture on the box shows the paint job to be a certain way who says that your car has to look like that? Have you ever wanted to get a Porsche with flames on it? Or shark teeth? Now you can make your very own flaming shark Porsche. Every racing team has their own color scheme and decorations. You could design the colors and designs for your very own racing team and build an entire stable of race cars.

3) A chance to have pride in your craftsmanship

As you build more models your skill level gets better and you can build more complex models. Completing a difficult model is a source of pride and makes you feel great. The time it takes it part of the joy.

4) A chance to race them

Depending on the types of models you have built you might be able to race them against your friends. In order to race them you are going to need gravity or a working motor that comes as part of the set. By racing them you can learn about power and what it takes to make a car go faster. Does it more or less weight? Does the rear spoiler speed you up or slow you down? Now is your chance to find out.

5) A chance to display them

You will be very proud of what you have created a no doubt want to show them off to the world. By putting your best work on display you invite others to see what you have created. No doubt they will be very impressed by what you have created and ask how you got to be so good at building models.

By building plastic model cars you have a chance to have a lot of fun and learn something at the same time. There are many people building them and a lot of models to choose from. You are sure to find your new favorite car available as a model.

About the Author

Building models since he was a boy, Richard has gained a strong appreciation of the fun and the challenges of building plastic model cars. He prefers to get his models from

Model Cars
as there is always something new to build.

How do they get those ship models into the bottles serious question?

I saw one today but the guy didn't know. Do they use long tweesers to build them inside the bottle or do they seal the bottle around the complete model? Again this is serious, this has always bugged me since I was a kid.

They assemble the ship model in the bottle. Probably with tweezers and such. I've seen it done; its pretty sweet.

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